Independent professional football intelligence.
Transparent model probabilities, matchup research, and information monitoring — built for people who want to understand the game, not chase it.
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Featured matchups — Week 1
View allTeam rating snapshot
View all| # | Team | Rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 1680 | 0-0 |
| 2 | JAX | 1627 | 0-0 |
| 3 | NE | 1627 | 0-0 |
| 4 | DEN | 1624 | 0-0 |
| 5 | HOU | 1624 | 0-0 |
| 6 | LAR | 1620 | 0-0 |
| 7 | BUF | 1593 | 0-0 |
| 8 | SF | 1591 | 0-0 |
How the model works
Our baseline model combines Elo-style team ratings, play-level efficiency (EPA, success rate, explosive-play rate), quarterback availability, injuries, rest, travel, and weather into a transparent, versioned probability estimate. Every factor is documented and every published projection is graded.
Read more →Latest analysis
View allanalysis
Rest and travel: what ten weeks of demo data says
Short weeks and long flights carry a measurable, but modest, cost in the model.
methodology
How we grade the model: Brier scores, calibration, and honesty
Every published projection is graded and archived. Here is exactly how the scoreboard works.
weekly preview
Week 11 model outlook: cold-weather variance arrives
Northern venues bring wind and cold into the projection picture for the first time this season.
Membership
Full probabilities, the scenario simulator, the historical explorer, model comparison, CSV exports, and information-change alerts.
The free weekly signal
One email per week: the model’s view of the slate, key rating movements, and what changed. No hype, no noise.
Gridiron Signal is a research and analytics product. Model projections are statistical estimates, never certainties. Never treat analytics as financial advice.